We assess the status of current generation 25G and 50G time division multiplexed passive optical network (TDM PON) technologies based on leveraging the cost efficiencies of the Ethernet intra-datacenter ecosystem. As a first step towards 100G TDM PON, we predict the real-world impact of a flexible modulation enhancement to 50G PON, whereby four-level pulse amplitude modulation (PAM4) symbols can be transmitted at the same symbol rate as 50 Gb/s PAM2, but only where excess margins permit. We find that sufficient margins are likely to exist to allow for a majority of future 50G PON optical network units to operate at 100 Gb/s PAM4. Next, we look at the options for a 100G PON capable of supporting the full loss budget and reach requirements. There is no technical risk if coherent technology is adopted, but intensity-modulation and direct-detection (IM-DD) will provide lower complexity, lower cost, and lower power dissipation. We evaluate this option and conclude that by following IM-DD Ethernet optics to 100 GBd, single wavelength IM-DD will continue to be feasible for 100G PON and will be a strong contender for the next generation of PON after 50 Gb/s.

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