Why Are Young People Souring on Marriage? Moral and Sentiment Patterns in Chinese Social Media Discourse

China’s marriage registrations have declined substantially, dropping from 13.47 million couples in 2013 to 6.1 million in 2024. This study examined sentiment and moral patterns underlying 219,358 marriage-related posts from Weibo and Xiaohongshu using large language model (LLM)-assisted content analysis. Drawing on Shweder’s Big Three moral ethics framework, posts were coded for sentiment (positive, negative, and neutral) and moral elements (autonomy, community, and divinity). Results revealed platform differences: Weibo leaned toward positive sentiment, while Xiaohongshu was predominantly neutral. Most posts lacked explicit moral framing. However, when moral elements were invoked, significant associations with sentiment emerged. Posts invoking autonomy and community were predominantly negative, whereas divinity-framed posts tended toward positive sentiment. These findings suggest that concerns about both personal autonomy constraints and communal obligations contribute to negative marriage attitudes in contemporary China, offering insights for culturally informed policies addressing marriage decline.