When Schools Are Equal but Children Are Not: A Multilevel Analysis of Home-Driven Variance and Cumulative Disadvantage in Early Childhood

Early childhood education and care (ECEC) systems in equitable welfare states are designed to provide comparatively standardised institutional inputs, yet substantial developmental gaps among children persist. This study examined this configuration—descriptively labelled the “Flemish Paradox”—using data from the OECD’s International Early Learning and Child Well-being Study (IELS 2025) for the Flemish Community of Belgium (2363 five year olds in 200 ECEC centres; parent-questionnaire data were available for a subset of the sample, and missing parent-report data were addressed through multiple imputation). Children’s cognitive and executive skills were measured with standardised direct tablet-based assessments, while home environments were reported by parents, separating measurement sources. Two-level hierarchical linear models with design-based weighting (child weight and 92 BRR replicate weights), pooled across five plausible values and 20 multiply imputed datasets, showed comparatively limited between-centre outcome variation (ICC ≈ 23% for foundational learning, ≈11% for executive function). Within centres, family socioeconomic status (B = 25.11, p < 0.001) and a print-focused home literacy index (PHLI; B = 16.60, p < 0.001) were positively associated with foundational learning, and centre-mean PHLI showed an independent contextual association (B = 24.11, p < 0.001). A positive within-centre indirect association through children’s executive function skills was estimated (3.60, 95% Monte Carlo CI [1.83, 5.40]); a secondary exploratory analysis indicated a parallel between-centre pattern (8.40, 95% CI [1.16, 15.65]). Centre socioeconomic composition was strongly associated with outcomes (B = 36.38, p < 0.001); the analysis did not provide evidence that it modified the within-centre PHLI–learning association (p = 0.219). The findings are consistent with cultural-capital perspectives and indicate that family resources, print-focused home literacy, and EFs are jointly associated with early learning within a multilevel ECEC context. However, the cross-sectional design does not establish temporal or causal mediation, and the results should not be interpreted as evidence regarding the effectiveness of particular family- or centre-based interventions.