Wetland Loss, Impervious Surface Expansion, and Urban Thermal Stress: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Land Use Change and Urban Thermal Patterns in Colombo District, Sri Lanka

Rapid urbanization in tropical Asia has fundamentally transformed land use–land cover while intensifying urban thermal stress, yet the relationship between land cover change and thermal conditions is frequently assumed to be spatially uniform. This study challenges that assumption by demonstrating that land cover–thermal relationships in Colombo District, Sri Lanka, are highly spatially and temporally heterogeneous, with statistically significant associations detected in only 17–47% of the study area in any given year, underscoring that context, not land cover type alone, governs thermal outcomes. Using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery, LULC maps were derived, and the urban heat island effect (UHIE) and urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI) were calculated for seven time periods (1989, 1996, 2002, 2009, 2014, 2019, 2024). Geographically weighted regression (GWR) was applied to model local relationships between LULC classes, namely wetland vegetation, water bodies, impervious surfaces, and other pervious surfaces, and thermal indices across a 500 m spatial grid, revealing a 74% loss in wetland vegetation and a 326% increase in impervious surfaces over the study period. Water bodies exhibited spatially variable cooling effects relative to wetland vegetation, most pronounced in eastern regions during earlier periods, while impervious surfaces showed consistent, spatially persistent warming effects concentrated in western and southern urban cores. By coupling GWR with a 35-year multi-sensor time series, this study provides a spatially explicit, longitudinal account of how land cover–thermal relationships evolve as tropical urbanization intensifies, offering an evidence base for spatially targeted rather than uniform climate adaptation planning in rapidly urbanizing tropical cities.