Value-Added Growth, Risk Exposure and Economic Sustainability in China’s Agriculture-Related Industries: An Ownership-Based Global Value Chain Analysis

Ensuring the sustainability of agriculture-related industries requires not only expanding value added but also maintaining stable value creation and adaptive capacity under changing economic conditions. This study examines the economic and organizational sustainability of China’s agriculture-related industries within global value chains. Using the 2026 release of the OECD Analytical Activities of Multinational Enterprises database and ownership-split inter-country input–output tables for 2011–2023, we construct an ownership-disaggregated value-added accounting framework covering the production, processing, and circulation stages and apply structural decomposition analysis to identify the sources of value-added change and potential weak links. The results show that domestic demand is the principal source of value creation for both domestic-owned and foreign-owned enterprises and became increasingly important over the study period. Final-goods-related value added remains larger than intermediate-goods-related value added, although the latter grows more rapidly, indicating deeper participation in cross-border production networks. Structural exposure varies across stages and periods. Production is strongly supported by domestic demand but exhibits pronounced internal offsetting in some periods; processing becomes a major adjustment node during 2019–2020, while circulation records the clearest contraction in the same period before returning to a more balanced growth structure during 2020–2023. Foreign-owned enterprises, particularly in processing, become increasingly embedded in China’s domestic market and local production structure. Risk exposure is interpreted as structural sensitivity rather than a direct measure of risk probability or expected loss. The findings highlight the importance of domestic demand, diversified input and market linkages, greater stability and adaptability in processing and circulation, and well-governed cross-ownership relationships for sustainable value-chain development.