Urban Form Evolution, Hydrological Responses, and Hazard‐Risk Potential for Sustainable Development Under Historical and Future SSP – RCP Pathways

ABSTRACT

Urban growth alters hydrological processes, yet the roles of horizontal and vertical urban form and future development pathways remain unclear. This study develops a city‐scale LCZ‐based framework to assess hydrological responses and hazard‐risk potential in Beijing from 2000 to 2100. From 2000 to 2020, runoff increased while runoff and discharge spatial autocorrelation weakened, showing runoff quantity alone cannot characterize flood‐related hydrological change. Compared with compactness, height showed stronger and consistent associations with discharge, hazard potential, and risk potential, with standardized coefficients of 11.08, 0.45, and 2.78, respectively. Adding temporal and spatial effects improved model explanatory power, with the coefficient of determination for risk potential increasing from 0.36 to 0.77. Future SSP–RCP scenarios showed highest morphology‐related flood pressure under SSP5 and lowest under SSP3. High‐pressure zones around 4 km and 12–16 km from the urban center matched areas of urban‐form change, highlighting spatial development trajectories in future hazard‐risk assessment.