UNESCO Global Geoparks’ impact on China’s tourism: Scarcity, synergy and saturation

Integrating scarcity theory and the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model, this study develops a theoretical framework to investigate how UNESCO Global Geoparks (UGGps) influence domestic and inbound tourism in China. We further analyse their nonlinear (inverted U-shaped) effects and synergistic interactions with other prestigious designations—World Heritage Sites (WHS) and China’s National 5A-level Tourist Attractions. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces for the period 2000–2020, we find: (1) UGGps significantly boost both domestic and international tourist arrivals; (2) the impact on total and domestic arrivals follows an inverted U-shaped curve, indicating diminishing returns beyond an optimal level; and (3) co-location with National 5A-level attractions produces strong synergies, especially for domestic tourism. These results advance tourism theory by unravelling the interplay between scarcity and destination life cycles, while providing actionable guidance for geopark sustainability and policy development.