Under Pressure: Analyzing
LEO
Turnover in America's Swing and Pivot Counties for 2016, 2020, 2024
Gary Johnson, Spencer Cragun, Jake Yoder ABSTRACT
Post‐2024, the United States faces an acute labor crisis marked by accelerating Local Election Official (LEO) attrition. This study examines causal drivers of this exodus, focusing specifically on disproportionate turnover within volatile “swing” and “pivot” counties. Utilizing a mixed‐methods design, using longitudinal data from the Bipartisan Policy Center, US Census Bureau, Elections Voter Survey, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL), and the Reed LEO survey, alongside an original dataset compiled from 74 competitive counties and 25 “super landslide” counties. Using Geographic Information Systems, we connect a detailed county profile to spatial mapping of the legal and political environment across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. LEOs in highly competitive jurisdictions face an erosion of institutional trust, serving as a primary catalyst for departure. These volatile jurisdictions highlight where democratic machinery is vulnerable, offering evidence‐based insights for state‐level policy interventions designed to stabilize the public administrative workforce amidst unprecedented hyperpolarization.