Trustworthy Educational Risk Modeling with Calibrated Probabilities, Conformal Uncertainty, Explainable AI, and Graph-Based Refinement

Student dropout remains an important challenge in higher education because it affects degree completion, institutional resource efficiency, workforce preparation, and students’ long-term socioeconomic opportunities. This requires not only accurate predictions but also decision support that is both reliable and aware of uncertainty. This study posits that the amalgamation of probabilistic modeling, uncertainty quantification, and graph-based refinement can augment both predictive reliability and decision support for the early detection of dropouts. A reliability-centered predictive framework is presented, integrating Educational Competition Optimization (ECO)-based feature selection, probabilistic Support Vector Classification (SVC), isotonic regression for probability calibration, and split conformal prediction for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. In addition, a similarity-driven Graph-based Fuzzy Cellular Automata (Graph-FCA) refinement mechanism is developed, where student relationships are modeled using a k-nearest neighbor graph with radial basis function similarity. Entropy-based confidence weighting is used to control uncertainty-aware propagation. An Explainable Artificial Intelligence layer based on SHAP provides both global and local interpretability, and fairness-aware evaluation assesses consistency across demographic groups. The suggested framework maintains predictive performance while improving probabilistic reliability. The Graph-FCA refinement achieves an accuracy of 0.7503, which is close to the calibrated ECO–SVC baseline (Accuracy = 0.7537; Macro-F1 = 0.6704) and also reduces the Brier score. The conformal prediction layer achieves empirical coverage close to the desired confidence level, ensuring reliable uncertainty estimates. The ECO–SVC–Conformal–GraphFCA framework transforms traditional classification into a reliable, understandable, and uncertainty-aware early warning system, enhancing its usefulness for ethical and informed decision-making in engineering education.