DOI: 10.11648/j.wjph.20261103.17 ISSN: 2637-6059

Trends, Patterns, And Predictors of Lassa Fever Among Children Aged 0–17 Years in Nigeria, 2019–2024

Islamiyyat Olatinwo, Elizabeth Amuta, Adamu Akyala, Oladipupo Ipadeola, Aishat Usman, Olaniyi Sanni
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Lassa fever disproportionately burdens vulnerable West African children, with higher case fatality rates. This study examines the trends and patterns of laboratory-confirmed Lassa fever (LF) positivity among children and key predictors of infection. This study used a retrospective cross-sectional design to analyze national surveillance data on paediatric Lassa fever cases in Nigeria from 2019 to 2024. It included all suspected paediatric Lassa fever cases (8,235 children aged 0–17 years) reported through the NCDC surveillance system, without sampling. Data covered all states and were collected via standardised tools, including RT-PCR confirmation. Analysis involved descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression to identify predictors of laboratory-confirmed Lassa fever positivity among children. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 28.0. Results : The study showed an overall positivity rate of 10.3% among children tested from 2019 to 2024, with notable annual positivity rates peaking in 2023 (23.9%) and 2020 (22.7%) and a decline in 2021 (13.6%). Age was a strong predictor: children aged 5–12 years (AOR = 1.790, p < 0.001) and adolescents aged 13–17 years (AOR = 2.325, p < 0.001) had higher odds of positivity compared to those aged 0–4 years. Females had slightly higher odds of infection (AOR = 1.205, p = 0.012). Seasonality played a major role: children tested in the first quarter were more than twice as likely to be positive as those tested in the last quarter (AOR = 2.449, p < 0.001). These findings highlight the need for seasonally targeted preparedness, strengthened paediatric surveillance, and context-specific clinical and public health interventions.

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