Trends and Prospects of the Mexican Electric System: An Analysis Based on the Modelling of Electricity Generation 2010–2030

In the last fifteen years, Mexico’s National Electric System (Sistema Eléctrico Nacional, SEN) has undergone significant structural changes, including the 2013 energy reform, the 2020 health contingency, ongoing geopolitical pressures, and the 2024 constitutional energy reform. Over this period, electricity consumption grew at an average annual rate of 3.1%, while the generation mix shifted substantially, with solar and wind capacity expanding from negligible levels to a combined output of 38,627 GWh by 2024. Despite these advances, supply reliability remains under pressure, and the growth of renewable deployment has not kept value with declared decarbonization commitments. This study quantifies the gap between the historical growth trajectory of the SEN and the targets established in the national expansion plan, using linear and second-degree polynomial regression models applied to official data series for the period 2010–2024 to assess whether current structural inertia is consistent with Mexico’s declared energy transition commitments. The results indicate that under a trend scenario, renewable installed capacity would reach approximately 34.3% by 2030, with an estimated generation of 112,136 GWh—insufficient to close the gap to sectoral decarbonization goals. The analysis further reveals that the Expansion Plan requires installing nearly twice the annual capacity historically added, posing a financing and institutional challenge that market signals alone cannot resolve. These findings demonstrate that structural inertia, rather than policy ambition, is currently the dominant driver of the evolution of Mexico’s electricity system, and that its energy transition will require deliberate acceleration beyond historical trends.