Trajectories of a Composite Lipid, Glucose, and Refined Obesity Index Predict Cardiovascular Disease
Linying Xia, Tengfei Ji, Yuan Wang, Danni Li, Yuyu Sun, Wenwen Wang, Jie DengBackground
Insulin resistance and central adiposity are key drivers of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although the CHG index and obesity‐related indicators can separately predict metabolic risks, this study explored the predictive value of their composite indices and longitudinal trajectories for incident CVD.
Methods
Based on 4164 middle‐aged and elderly participants from a national prospective cohort, we analyzed baseline levels, cumulative exposures and K‐means‐defined longitudinal trajectories of CHG‐related composite indices. Cox regression, ROC analysis, and weighted quantile sum regression were adopted to explore CVD associations and predictive efficiency.
Results
During an 8‐year median follow‐up, 22.14% of participants developed CVD. Elevated baseline values, increased cumulative exposure, and unfavorable trajectories of composite indices were linked to higher CVD risk. Per 1‐SD rise in baseline CHG‐WC and CHG‐CVAI corresponded to 19% and 17% higher CVD risk, respectively. Their addition produced statistically significant improvements in predictive performance and risk stratifying capacity of the Framingham Risk Score, as further supported by NRI and IDI analyses.
Conclusion
Longitudinal trajectories and cumulative exposures of CHG‐obesity composite indices serve as reliable independent predictors of CVD. Dynamic monitoring of these indicators facilitates early CVD risk stratification.