Towards a Sustainable Yangtze River Economic Belt: Deciphering the Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Multivariate Influencing Mechanisms Based on Spatial Spillover Effects for Urban Carbon Productivity

Enhancing urban carbon productivity (UCP) is crucial for achieving the dual carbon goals in China. This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of UCP in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2010 and 2020. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 110 cities, we employ kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). The results reveal a significant overall improvement in UCP alongside intensified internal disparities and a fundamental spatial restructuring—from a monocentric eastern-led pattern to a multipolar network driven by the Yangtze River Delta, middle Yangtze, and Chengdu-Chongqing agglomerations. The SDM decomposition reveals a shift in core drivers towards green technological innovation and advanced industrial structure, while energy consumption remains the primary constraint. Crucially, complex spatial spillover effects are identified: factors like advanced industrial structure and digital governance are associated with positive synergistic spillovers, whereas government intervention (government public budget expenditure) and urban sprawl exhibit negative competitive spillovers, collectively corresponding to the polarized regional pattern. Furthermore, urban form shows strong spatial externalities: urban compactness is linked to a “local-neighborhood” double dividend, while urban sprawl is associated with a “local-neighborhood” double curse. The influence of digital factors appears to evolve from early widespread spillovers to later localized deepening. The findings suggest the necessity of implementing spatially differentiated policies, strengthening regional collaborative governance to manage spatial externalities, and promoting compact regional spatial planning to foster synergistic and equitable low-carbon transitions across the YREB.