Tipping resonance in a chaotically forced ice age model

Abstract

Many physical systems are forced by external inputs, which can sometimes take the form of chaotic variation. A particular example is found in applications related to weather and climate, where chaotic variation is prevalent across various timescales. If the system in question has multiple attracting solutions for a given range of forcing, rate-induced tipping can be triggered by the chaotic forcing, with the difference in timescales between the forcing and the system acting as a ‘rate’ parameter. In this paper, we explore the interplay between these two timescales in a low-order model of ice age dynamics. The model exhibits bistability between two equilibria in one region of the parameter space and between an equilibrium and a periodic orbit in another region. When chaotic variation of the parameters is allowed within these bistable regions, the solutions of the forced system undergo rate-induced tipping from one attractor to another. Simulations of the forced system show that the timescale of the chaotic forcing induces a resonance-like behaviour, with an optimal timescale at which the likelihood of rate-induced tipping is at its maximum. We combine basin instability theory, finite-time Lyapunov exponents and linear resonance analysis under periodic forcing to explain this resonance effect.