The Resource Curse Reconsidered: Mining Expansion and Agricultural Performance in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, 2010–2024

The resource curse hypothesis predicts that mining expansion weakens agriculture. We test this prediction at the subnational scale using a 2010–2024 panel of 13 regencies and cities in South Kalimantan, Indonesia (195 regency-year observations). Between 2010 and 2024, absolute agricultural output rose in every unit, by 39% to 63%, even though agriculture’s share of total gross regional domestic product (GRDP) fell in all 13 units. Estimates of the mining–agriculture relationship depend heavily on specification: with regency effects only, mining and agricultural output are positively associated (β = +0.459, p = 0.008), whereas adding year effects yields a small negative elasticity (β = −0.065, p = 0.020). Regency-level Granger tests, limited by short series, give no consistent evidence that mining precedes agricultural decline. The fall in agricultural share is consistent with a denominator effect: agriculture grew by 2.92% a year on average against 4.55% for total GRDP, a gap of −1.63 percentage points (p < 0.001). No regency shows a simultaneous fall in both absolute output and share. The results are descriptive and do not establish causality, but they suggest that a declining agricultural share in mining regions should not be read, on its own, as evidence of a resource curse. We discuss implications for land protection, revenue sharing, and post-coal transition planning.