The Power of Land: Structure and Function Transitions Steering China's Sustainable Development Goal Pathways

Abstract

In the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) entering its final critical window, it is essential that a more forward‐looking urban land‐management system be constructed, as land space constitute the core spatial carriers of the SDGs. Rapid urbanization in China has profoundly reshaped land‐use spatial patterns, but the mechanisms through which it modifies human–nature interactions and subsequently influences urban SDG progress have not yet been systematically clarified. This study characterizes the historical trajectory of urban land use transitions in China from 2000 to 2020 through the dual dimensions of spatial structure conflict index (SSCI) and spatial function coordination index (SFCI). The study identifies the key pathways through which these transitions affect SDG via ecosystem service supply–demand balance, while highlighting significant differences across city types. Results indicate that coordinated functional utilization of land is more crucial than mitigating structural conflict for achieving SDGs in China. 43.30% of the inhibitory effect of SSCI on SDGs was indirectly realized through alterations in the supply–demand balance of key ecosystem services, such as habitat quality and food production, whereas 92.69% of the positive effect of SFCI directly attributable to improvements in land‐use efficiency, public‐service accessibility, and governance capacity. Significant heterogeneity is observed among city types: resource‐based, high‐income, and non‐urban‐agglomeration cities are more susceptible to the negative effects of structural conflict transmitted through ecosystem service demand‐response pathways. The SDG gains of middle‐ and low‐income as well as urban agglomeration cities depend more heavily on the direct developmental benefits generated by functional coordination.