The Portrait of Flood Risk in Italy: Past, Present and Future, From 1870 to 2100

Abstract

Among European countries, Italy ranks as one of the most susceptible to flood risk. While this figure is already substantial, climate change and rapid urbanization in flood‐prone areas have been identified as the two main drivers expected to elevate the number of individuals at risk. This study offers a comprehensive assessment of these two drivers of flood risk in Italy over 230 years, from 1870 to 2100, focusing on how they interact to increase risk. Using the large‐scale flood risk model RESCUE‐FR, we analyze the population at risk under the 200‐year return period scenario to provide a targeted assessment of population risk, how it has evolved in the past, and its projection in the future. Our findings indicate that while historical flood risk in Italy has primarily been influenced by population growth and migration into at‐risk areas, future projections suggest that climate change will become the dominant driver of flood risk.