The Mechanism of Influence of Higher Education Scale on Regional Economic Development in China: The Perspective of the Industry–University–Research Collaboration

To clarify the internal mechanism through which the scale of higher education influences regional economic development, this work constructed an operational framework of education, talents, science and technology, and industry. Based on the 2023 data of 31 provincial administrative regions in China, covering 178 national high-tech industrial development zones, an empirical analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics and the Bootstrap mediating-effect test. The findings indicate that the expansion of higher education scale can enhance the level of talent supply, promote the agglomeration of scientific and technological innovation resources, drive the development of industrial scale, and thereby significantly boost economic growth. Among these pathways, the scale of the undergraduate and postgraduate student population exerts a complete mediating effect, while research and development investment and the number of enterprises in high-tech zones demonstrate a partial mediating effect. Notably, a striking contrast emerges between regular undergraduate institutions and double-first-class universities. The former exhibit significant positive mediating effects, whereas the latter’s economic driving effect remains largely unrealized. Furthermore, the uneven distribution of high-quality educational resources, particularly the spatial polarization of double-first-class universities, coupled with a mismatch between talent cultivation and industrial demands, and the “spatial isolation” of achievements, all restricted the radiating effect of higher education on regional economies. Therefore, it is necessary to implement a regionally differentiated layout of higher education, optimize the allocation mechanism of scientific and technological innovation resources, strengthen industry–university–research collaboration, and give full play to the effect of industrial agglomeration.