The Impact of Renewable Energy Development on Environmental Security and Climate Resilience

This study examines how the development of renewable energy influences environmental security and climate resilience in Ukraine amidst structural disruptions and external shocks spanning the period 2021–2025. The research is based on a systemic analytical framework that combines indicator-based assessment, statistical time-series analysis, and econometric modeling. Renewable energy is conceptualized as a structural factor that transforms the energy balance and affects emission intensity, environmental risks, and the operational stability of the energy system. A coherent system of indicators is developed to capture the causal chain linking renewable energy expansion with environmental and systemic outcomes. The dynamics of key indicators demonstrate that the increase in the share of renewable energy does not lead to a linear reduction in absolute emissions due to the strong influence of changes in electricity generation volumes, fuel structure, and wartime conditions. At the same time, intensity indicators reveal the presence of a decarbonization effect associated with renewable energy development. Correlation, differential, and regression analyses indicate that the relationship between renewable energy and carbon intensity is unstable in short time series and depends on structural and operational factors. The findings show that renewable energy contributes to reducing environmental pressure in the medium term, although its effect may be temporarily offset by crisis conditions.