The Impact of Large-Scale Public Housing Provision on New Private Housing Sales: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

This article examines the impact of large-scale public housing provision on new private housing sales in Turkey. Over the past two decades, the Turkish government has substantially expanded public housing programs to improve access for low- and middle-income households, raising concerns about potential displacement effects on private housing markets. Using regional panel data for 26 NUTS-2 regions over the period 2013–2021, the study analyzes whether public housing supply is associated with changes in new private housing sales. The results indicate a small but statistically significant positive association at the regional level. Rather than pointing to evidence of crowding-out, the findings suggest that, under Turkey’s specific institutional and macroeconomic conditions during the period studied, public housing provision has coexisted with – and modestly supported – private housing market activity.