The Impact of Grain Import Substitution on China’s Cultivated Land Pressure

Grain trade connects regions with different land endowments and can help relieve pressure on productive cultivated land. This study constructs a modified cultivated land pressure index incorporating a standardized land productivity coefficient to account for regional variations in land quality. Using provincial-level panel data for 30 regions in China from 2003 to 2020 and a two-way fixed-effects model, we investigate the association between grain import substitution and cultivated land pressure. (1) The virtual land calculations show that soybean had the highest virtual land content among the four major crops, with a national average of 0.554 ha/t, approximately three times that of rice. The virtual land content of soybean, wheat, rice, and maize declined by 20.25–25.76% during the study period, indicating continuous improvement in land-use efficiency. (2) From 2003 to 2020, cultivated land pressure showed clear regional disparities: the Northeast exhibited a gradual decline to moderate levels, and South China and the Middle–Lower Yangtze River regions increased from moderate to high pressure, while the Huang–Huai–Hai Region remained persistently high, and the Southwest remained at moderate levels. (3) Grain import substitution is significantly associated with lower cultivated land pressure, suggesting that imports may contribute to easing domestic land constraints; each additional 100,000 hectares of equivalent domestic cultivated land saved is associated with a reduction of 0.049 in the pressure index. The pressure-alleviating effect is stronger in northern regions and major grain-producing areas than in southern and non-major producing regions. (4) Spatial econometric analysis indicates positive spatial dependence, with increased grain import substitution in one region linked to lower cultivated land pressure in neighboring provinces. This study refines the conventional cultivated land pressure index and provides a framework for assessing both the direct and spillover effects of grain imports on domestic land resources. The findings underscore the potential of grain trade to support sustainable land use and regional resource allocation.