The impact of emotions on voting intention in a constitutional referendum

Emotions are fundamental components of political behaviour and play a central role in how individuals interpret and evaluate processes of institutional change. In the context of referendums, where decisions are made under uncertainty and without partisan mediation, their influence becomes particularly salient. This study examines the role of emotions in voting intentions during Chile’s 2022 constitutional referendum—a case marked by a dramatic reversal from 78% initial support to 62% final rejection. Using a pre-election survey of 2117 respondents conducted in the 10 days preceding the vote, we analyse the associations between four emotions—fear, anger, hope, and joy—and preferences to approve or reject the proposed constitution. The results show that hope and anger were significantly associated with voting intentions: the former with support for change and the latter with its rejection. Notably, anger exhibited a stronger effect than hope, suggesting that negative emotional mobilization outweighed positive engagement. These associations remained robust when accounting for traditional predictors such as ideology, economic expectations, and institutional trust. Overall, the findings indicate that decisions in referendums are shaped not only by rational reasoning but also by affective dispositions that frame how citizens engage with political transformation.