The Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism and Recovery Patterns in the Visegrád Countries

The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted tourism globally, with considerable variation in impact and recovery across regions. This study examines how tourism demand, revenue, employment, and transport evolved in the Visegrád Four (V4) countries—Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—between 2015 and 2025, assessing recovery speed and sectoral resilience across nine indicators. The modelled window varies by indicator: 2015–2023 for revenue indicators, 2015–2024 for visitor-flow indicators, and 2015–2025 for employment and air passenger indicators. Annual data from Eurostat and the Hungarian Central Statistical Office were analysed using descriptive comparative methods, linear mixed-effects models, and interrupted time series analysis with counterfactual projections. All indicators showed sustained pre-pandemic growth followed by a statistically significant 2020 shock. International demand fell roughly twice as sharply as domestic demand, and air passenger traffic suffered the largest absolute collapse. Revenue recovered fastest, surpassing pre-pandemic levels by 2023–2024 in all countries, while guest-volume recovery is projected only by 2025–2027. Part-time employment remained below 2015 levels in three of four countries despite volume and revenue recovery, indicating structural labour market adjustment. Slovakia consistently showed non-significant post-shock recovery slopes in seven of nine indicators, emerging as the region’s weakest performer. These findings indicate that COVID-19 produced uneven, revenue-led recovery across V4, and the employment paradox and Slovakia’s underperformance underscore the need for diversified, evidence-based tourism crisis management.