The Impact of Consumer Psychological Expectations on Consumption Behavior and Economic Recovery: Addressing Anxiety and Emotional Stress under Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Lingmin ZhuAbstract
Objective
This study investigates how consumer psychological expectations evolve in response to macroeconomic fluctuations and examines their subsequent impact on consumption behavior and economic recovery, with particular focus on anxiety disorders, emotional stress, and mental health considerations during economic uncertainty.
Subjects and Methods
A mixed-methods approach combined big data analysis of consumer sentiment indices (2010-2023) with a longitudinal survey of 5,000 households across income groups. The study employed econometric models including vector autoregression and propensity score matching to analyze relationships between economic indicators and psychological expectations. Mental health assessments using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale (GAD-7) and Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) were incorporated to evaluate emotional wellbeing.
Results
Consumer psychological expectations demonstrated high sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations (correlation coefficient=0.78, p<0.01). During economic downturns, expectation indices decreased by 35%, leading to 28% reduction in durable goods consumption and 40% increase in anxiety symptoms. The mediating effect of psychological expectations accounted for 42% of consumption behavior changes, with anxiety levels serving as a significant predictor (β=0.65, p<0.01). Recovery phases showed that 1% improvement in expectation indices correlated with 0.6% consumption increase and 25% reduction in stress levels.
Conclusions
Psychological expectations and mental health factors play crucial mediating roles in the transmission from macroeconomic fluctuations to consumption behavior. Policy interventions should incorporate expectation management and mental health support strategies to accelerate economic recovery, emphasizing confidence-building measures and psychological support to stabilize consumer behavior during economic volatility.
Corresponding Author
Lingmin Zhu, Inner Mongolia University of Finance and Economics, Hohhot 010050, China.