The impact of city population dynamics on the size of its airport hinterland

The paper examines the impact of urban agglomeration population on the size of an airport hinterland. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to clarify the degree to which the demographic size of a city explains the development of its air route network and why some highly populated cities do not have comparably large airport hinterlands. The purpose of the study is to identify the nature of the relationship between agglomeration population and airport hinterland size, as well as to determine the factors that limit the explanatory capacity of the demographic indicator.  The scientific novelty lies in the use of long-term time series data covering over 150 global air hubs and in the identification of recurring patterns in route network development dynamics. The methodology includes calculating airport hinterland size as the number of cities connected by direct air services, constructing time series, and quantitatively analyzing changes. The findings demonstrate a positive correlation between agglomeration population size and airport hinterland size in most cases. However, this indicator alone is insufficient to explain the historical dynamics of specific air hubs. Airline hub strategies, city or regional economic growth, the expansion of low-cost and leisure travel, and external impulses all play significant roles. These results can be applied to the analysis of airport network development, transport planning, and comparative studies of urban agglomerations.