The Impact of Agricultural Digitization on Green Total Factor Productivity in Agriculture: Evidence from 30 Provinces in China

Amid tighter resource and environmental limits in China, the integration of digitization and greening gives new momentum to sustainable agriculture; however, its methods and structural conditions remain unclear. This study utilizes provincial panel data from 2011–2023 and the super-efficiency SBM-GML model to estimate agricultural green total factor productivity (AGTFP). It empirically examines the green empowerment effect of agricultural digitization, its transmission pathways, and structural boundaries. Unlike existing studies that rely on input-oriented or rural-level digitalization measures and qualitative regional groupings, this study constructs an agriculture-specific index, identifies agricultural socialized services (ASS) as an organizational channel, examines the moderating role of environmental regulation, and uses a continuous threshold variable to identify the structural breakpoint at which digitization’s green effect changes. The findings indicate that digitization considerably enhances AGTFP, and this association remains stable across a range of robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that ASS partially mediates this effect, while environmental regulation intensity positively moderates the relationship. Heterogeneity and threshold analyses show that the empowering effect is only significant in the eastern region, but not in the central and western regions; it is significant in the main grain-producing areas. Moreover, a tentative structural breakpoint is identified when the grain-sown area proportion reaches 0.486. Since this threshold is statistically significant only at the 10% level, it should be regarded as preliminary evidence. Accordingly, we recommend regionally differentiated digital agriculture strategies, strengthening the socialized agricultural service system, and enhancing synergy between environmental regulation and digital empowerment to effectively advance the green transformation of China’s agriculture.