The ‘Great Frost’ of 1708–9 in Britain and the Condescensions of Posterity

Abstract

This article explores the ‘great frost’ of 1709 and its impact on economic life in Britain, challenging a popular view that, based on gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, it was catastrophic. It shows that the annual GDP figures for the period have such wide error margins that they cannot establish the scale of the disruption; that the severe winter was felt in southern but not northern Britain; that there were, in any case, means of partially mitigating such disruptions; and that the economic difficulties that were experienced had various causes, not just those of a bad winter. The article then considers the wider role of myths about early modern economic life: as ways of simplifying the complexities with insufficient regard to the facts of the matter. In turn, this raises questions about the relationship between scholarly and popular history and the need to guard against condescending views of early modern economic life that go beyond the example explored here.