The Geopolitics of Bypassing: How Trade Corridors Shape Iran's Sanctioned Economy

Abstract

This article examines the extent to which international trade corridors allow Iran to mitigate the effects of US‐led sanctions and preserve trade and economic resilience under conditions of sustained military confrontation. It argues that the effectiveness of trade corridors varies according to infrastructure readiness, partner commitment, financial flexibility, and exposure to external pressure. A comparative analysis of the International North‐South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the Chabahar‐India‐Central Asia route, and China‐linked corridors shows that the Islamic Republic derives uneven and conditional gains. INSTC appears to offer the most durable medium‐term advantages, while Chabahar remains politically contingent. By contrast, China‐linked corridors are the most economically consequential, supporting a large share of Iran's sanctions‐era external earnings, particularly through oil trade, despite limited institutional commitment. Although these corridors cannot offset the Islamic Republic's broader economic losses, they preserve selected trade flows under sanctions and recurring warfare. Their value differs, however, in reducing dependence on maritime commerce and in their exposure to military, financial, diplomatic, logistical, and sanctions‐related disruption.