The Gap Between Theoretical and Realized Energy Savings from Dishwasher Energy-Efficiency Labeling in China: A Dual-Sided Framework

Energy-efficiency labeling may yield lower savings than engineering estimates suggest because market uptake is constrained by consumers and enterprises. This study aims to quantify this gap for dishwasher energy-efficiency labeling in China, identify the binding constraint, and assess its recoverable share. A logistic stock-flow model estimates theoretical savings under GB 38383-2019, while surveys of 199 consumers and 191 enterprises parameterize a dual-sided indicator system. Assuming that consumer and enterprise capacities are non-substitutable, a weakest-link model and scenario simulations estimate realized and recoverable savings. Theoretical savings reach 20.26 TWh by 2030, but only 55.9% (11.33 TWh) is realizable, leaving an 8.94 TWh gap. Consumer-side capacity (0.559) is lower than enterprise-side capacity (0.657), mainly because of experience-related barriers. The highest-intensity bilateral scenario recovers 33.0% of the gap and raises the realization rate to 70.4%. Thus, stricter standards alone cannot ensure realized savings; policies should prioritize consumer experience and label accessibility alongside enterprise compliance.