The Future of Agri-PV in Central Asia: A GIS-Based Spatial Screening Framework

Central Asia combines extensive agricultural land, high solar resources and increasing pressure on land, water and energy systems, creating a relevant context for agrivoltaic (Agri-PV) deployment. This study develops a spatially explicit GIS-based multi-criteria framework for regional-scale screening of Agri-PV potential across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. Five spatial criteria were considered: cropland occurrence, global horizontal irradiation, terrain slope, maximum air temperature and proximity to the electricity grid. Each criterion was transformed to a dimensionless 0–1 score using criterion-specific membership functions and combined through a multiplicative overlay. The resulting composite index represents technical and infrastructural screening potential on existing cropland rather than crop-specific agronomic suitability. Approximately 207,276 km2 of cropland received a non-zero composite score under the baseline screening definition. The largest absolute areas occur in Qostanay, North Kazakhstan and Aqmola, whereas several regions in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan exhibit higher median composite scores. A threshold-sensitivity analysis shows that administrative-region rankings remain highly stable for minimum composite scores of 0.1–0.3, with Spearman rank correlations of 0.998, 0.992 and 0.976 relative to the baseline ranking, respectively. PV resource quality within screened-in cropland is additionally characterized using specific electricity yield rather than an assumed installed-capacity potential. The framework is intended for regional strategic screening; crop-specific performance, irrigation requirements, hydrology and project-level feasibility are not explicitly modelled. Potential Water–Energy–Food nexus implications are therefore interpreted as hypotheses for subsequent assessment rather than as benefits directly quantified by the GIS model.