The Factors Driving Migration Intentions and Destination Preferences in Central, East, and Southeast European Countries

ABSTRACT

This paper studies the determinants of the intentions to emigrate and conditional on migration aspirations, the destination choice in a number of Central East and Southeast European economies (CESEE). Using data from the OeNB Euro Survey, we apply a two‐stage Heckman procedure to identify the drivers of migration intentions – specifically individuals' demographic and household attributes, financial conditions, past economic experiences, and future expectations. In the second stage, conditional on the stated intention to migrate, we examine the determinants of destination choice, distinguishing between EU15, EU‐CEE, and extra‐EU countries. This micro‐level evidence indicates that economic and financial conditions (past, present, and expected) play an important role in shaping migration intentions, while non‐economic factors, including individual demographic and family attributes, as well as network ties, also exert important influence. Destination preferences, conditional on an already existing intention to migrate are not simply a mechanical extension of intention determinants. The choice of the destination region is determined mostly by marital status, educational attainment, and GDP per capita variables in the origin and destination region. This reflects the conceptualisation of migration as a two‐stage decision process, distinguishing between entry into the pool of potential migrants and destination choice within that pool. This stage‐specific perspective thus allows to differentiate determinants of intentions and destination choice of prospective mobility, that empirical results based on actual migration decisions cannot deliver.