The evolving burden and nursing quality of ischemic heart disease in china: current status, three decades of trends, and 2050 forecast
J Dong, C Niu, J NiAbstract
Background
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the major public health challenges in both China and globally, with a significant shift in disease burden and nursing quality. This study aims to analyze the disease burden and nursing quality of ischemic heart disease in China and forecast the trends through 2050.
Methods
We utilized the GBD2023 dataset to analyze the trends of ischemic heart disease in China from 1990 to 2023. The data includes age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with stratification by age and gender, to reveal the trends over the past three decades. Additionally, we analyzed the trends in the Quality of Care Index (QCI) and made predictions for 2050 based on existing data.
Results
According to the GBD2023 data, the prevalence and incidence of ischemic heart disease in China have fluctuated since 1990. Between 1990 and 2005, both the prevalence and incidence rose sharply, peaking around 2000 (with a prevalence close to 3500 cases per 100,000 and incidence near 110 cases per 100,000), but started to decline after 2005. Mortality and DALYs showed significant fluctuations during this period, with some decline in recent years; however, mortality remains high, particularly among the male population. Age-standardized mortality showed a slow decline, with a slight rebound in 2020. Forecasted data suggests that both prevalence and incidence will continue to rise, while mortality and DALYs are expected to decline. By 2050, the prevalence is projected to reach around 25,000 cases per 100,000, with an incidence of 160 cases per 100,000. Mortality is expected to remain at around 120 cases per 100,000. Despite this, with improvements in healthcare quality, especially nursing quality, the rate of increase in disease burden is expected to slow down. The QCI has continuously improved since 1990, particularly among individuals aged 60 and above, with a negative correlation between the rise in QCI and the decline in mortality. The forecast indicates that QCI will reach 100 by 2028 and stabilize through 2050, with trends verified by machine learning models showing consistent results.
Conclusion
The burden of ischemic heart disease in China remains heavy. Despite improvements in healthcare and nursing quality, the disease burden continues to grow. The forecast for 2050 indicates that the trend of increasing disease burden will persist, especially among the elderly population. Therefore, future efforts should focus on enhancing high-quality nursing interventions, particularly for the elderly, to reduce the long-term impact of ischemic heart disease on society and the healthcare system.Figure 1.Burden ForecastTrends, Forecast, and QCI Machine Learning