The Element of Surprise: Investigating the relationship between avalanche Incidents and Prior Expectations
Sarah Petelinsek, Jamal Jones, Rowan Kelner, Nikki Champion, Michael Morgan, Theodore Hartridge, Patrick G HughesStudy hypothesis or Objective
The primary outcome of interest was participants’ reported level of surprise during avalanche incidents, conceptualized as an indicator of expectation gaps between anticipated and actual conditions. We also examined how surprise varied across specific avalanche characteristics, including width, trigger mechanism, depth, slope angle, and type.
Methods
This study is a cross-sectional analysis of a larger dataset collected by the Utah Avalanche Center (UAC), investigating those who reported involvement in human triggered avalanches. This study focused specifically on the survey measures related to surprise.
Results
The original cohort consisted of 489 participants, all of whom were included in the final analysis. A total of 60.3% (295/489) of participants reported being surprised by at least one aspect of their avalanche. Regarding overall perceptions, 37.6% (184/489) expected the avalanche, 36.4% (178/489) were somewhat surprised, 8.8% (43/489) were completely surprised, and 17.2% (84/489) reported intending to trigger the avalanche.
Conclusions
Overall, the results of this study determine that more than half of the population who report being involved in a human triggered avalanche were surprised by the result, and that these surprise levels decreased as a result of increased forecast reading, suggesting that knowledge is a significant driver in the avalanche decision-making matrix. Future research should expand upon our theoretical framework, and further investigate these concepts on a more generalizable population.