The Electoral Transformation of the U.S. Rust Belt: From Democratic Dominance to Republican Advantage, 1990s–2020s

This article examines the electoral transformation of the U.S. Rust Belt–a traditionally industrial region that for decades constituted a core component of the Democratic Party’s electoral coalition–over the period from the 1990s to the 2020s. The aim of the study is to identify the causes, dynamics, and mechanisms underlying the shift from stable Democratic dominance to the emergence of a Republican advantage in key states of the region (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin). The methodological framework combines an analysis of electoral data from presidential, midterm, and state-level elections with comparative regional analysis, interpreted through the lenses of party realignment theory, the concept of cultural backlash, and economic voting theory. The findings demonstrate that the electoral shift in the Rust Belt is asymmetric and incomplete. Deindustrialization and related socioeconomic changes created the structural foundation for rising political discontent; however, the conversion of this discontent into durable partisan preferences was mediated by cultural-identitarian and institutional factors, including the decline of labor unions and transformations in party strategies. The article’s scholarly contribution lies in conceptualizing the electoral transformation of the Rust Belt not as a completed party realignment, but as a dynamic process of coalition restructuring driven by the interaction of economic shocks, cultural conflict, and institutional change.