The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Marco Ajelli, Corrado Gioannini, Maria Litvinova, Stefano Merler, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Kunpeng Mu, Luca Rossi, Kaiyuan Sun, Cécile Viboud, Xinyue Xiong, Hongjie Yu, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. Longini, Alessandro Vespignani- Multidisciplinary
Outbreak to pandemic
In response to global dispersion of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), quarantine measures have been implemented around the world. To understand how travel and quarantine influence the dynamics of the spread of this novel human virus, Chinazzi et al. applied a global metapopulation disease transmission model to epidemiological data from China. They concluded that the travel quarantine introduced in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 only delayed epidemic progression by 3 to 5 days within China, but international travel restrictions did help to slow spread elsewhere in the world until mid-February. Their results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic.
Science
, this issue p.