The Dynamics of the Fiscal Deficit in the Syrian Economy: A Qualitative Analytical Study of the Impact of the Decline in Revenues and Increasing Expenditures during the Period (2000–2024)

During the period 2010-2024, the Syrian economy witnessed unprecedented structural challenges, represented by the widening of the area of fiscal imbalances and the depth of the phenomenon of the fiscal deficit as one of the most prominent crises hindering the path of economic recovery. This research aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the phenomenon of fiscal deficit in the Syrian economy, on the one hand, by studying the development of fiscal deficit indicators as a percentage of GDP and as a percentage of the total state budget, and on the other hand, The research seeks to analyze the path of the decline in public revenues in its two parts: tax revenues and oil revenues. On the other hand, the research analyzes the dynamic of the increase in public expenditures, distinguishing between current expenditures and investment expenditures, which have witnessed a sharp decline that reflects negatively on infrastructure and future development prospects.

The research relies on the descriptive-analytical approach to public financial data and the standard method, with the aim of measuring the determinants of the fiscal deficit in Syria. The model relies on the use of the fiscal deficit ratio to GDP as a dependent variable, while the independent variables include: (the ratio of investment expenditures to GDP, the growth rate of the consumer price index, and an imaginary variable to control external shocks)', where the self-regression model of distributed time gaps (ARDL) was used an Estimating the ARDL model (2,1,0) using time series during the period (2003-2024). The importance of the research lies in providing an analytical reading that helps to understand the nature of structural budget imbalances, and to propose fiscal and expenditure reform policies that contribute to reducing the deficit and achieving fiscal and monetary stability.