The Delphi method in foresight: Building consensus for an ‘ideal’ early cancer care policy framework

Abstract

The Delphi method has a long history in technology foresight and healthcare planning. RAND Europe applied this method to identify the building blocks of a policy framework to address present and future challenges to address early cancer care. This RAND Europe study, commissioned by the global Mission Early initiative, defined key components of an evidence‑informed policy framework for early cancer care. Despite major advances, global disparities persist in timely detection, diagnosis, and treatment. RAND conducted a multi‑phase Expert Consensus study with specialists from 11 countries. The research progressed through idea generation, a Delphi, and validation workshops. Experts evaluated proposed policy components for both their importance and feasibility. Ten core components were identified, organised into 5 domains spanning the early cancer care pathway. The framework anticipates two critical shifts: the convergence of biological and digital innovation and the transformation of public and community engagement. Experts emphasised the need for anticipatory governance, adaptive financing and long‑term capacity building to prepare health systems for these emerging trends. The resulting framework positions early cancer care as an integrated continuum, connecting education, detection, diagnosis, treatment, and long‑term health system resilience rather than fragmented, isolated interventions. It provides policymakers with a flexible and adaptive blueprint to embed equity, accountability, and prevention within national cancer control strategies, and to guide coordinated investment toward earlier, more cost‑effective, and patient‑centred outcomes. As a strategic roadmap and foresight platform, it invites governments and stakeholders to co‑create equitable, data‑driven, and future‑ready early cancer care systems capable of anticipating and evolving with scientific advances, demographic transitions, digital innovation, and emerging models of healthcare delivery.