The COVID-19 Crisis and Global Supply Chain Disruptions: A Comparative Study of China and the United States and Lessons for the Syrian Economy (2020–2022)

This study analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international trade and global supply chain disruptions during 2020–2022 by comparing China and the United States and drawing lessons for strengthening the resilience of the Syrian economy. It examines how differences in national policies affected supply and demand disruptions, with particular attention to supply diversification, domestic production, and logistics infrastructure.

China’s “Zero-COVID” policy and strict lockdowns disrupted production, closed factories and ports, caused shortages of intermediate goods, and transmitted supply shocks to global markets. In the United States, large fiscal and monetary stimulus packages increased demand for goods, while port congestion and transportation bottlenecks intensified supply–demand imbalances and inflationary pressures.

The study employs descriptive-analytical and comparative approaches, using the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), shipping costs, and inflation indicators. The findings show that the pandemic exposed the vulnerability of the Just-in-Time (JIT) production model to major shocks. China’s production concentration and strong U.S. demand contributed to global supply chain disruptions, while rising transportation costs and shortages of intermediate inputs intensified inflationary pressures. U.S. inflation reached 9.1% in 2022.

The study concludes that the crisis shifted attention from efficiency and cost reduction toward resilience and economic security through supply diversification, strategic localization, digitalization, and strategic stockpiles. For Syria, it recommends diversifying import sources and markets, strengthening domestic production of essential goods, improving logistics infrastructure, and establishing strategic reserves to reduce vulnerability to external shocks.