The Cost-Of-Living Crisis and Suicide Rates
Jane Pirkis, Sangsoo Shin, Leo Roberts, Vikas Arya, Martin Agrest, Pablo Analuisa Aguilar, Louis Appleby, S. M. Yasir Arafat, Sara Ardila-Gomez, Ella Arensman, Jose Luis Ayuso-Mateos, Yatan Pal Singh Balhara, Puimee Bandara, Jason Bantjes, Anna Baran, Chittaranjan Behera, Jose Bertolote, Daniela Bonanno, Guilherme Borges, Michael Bray, Petrana Brečić, Eric Caine, Raffaella Calati, Manuel Canal-Rivero, Vladimir Carli, Giulio Castelpietra, Lai Fong Chan, Shu-Sen Chang, Maria Coss-Guzmán, David Crompton, Marko Curkovic, Rakhi Dandona, Eva De Jaegere, Diego De Leo, Eberhard A. Deisenhammer, Marcos DelPozo-Banos, Nash Denic, Jennifer M. Dmetrichuk, Jeremy Dwyer, Emma Eliasson, Annette Erlangsen, Jeremy Samuel Faust, Michele Fornaro, Sarah Fortune, Guendalina Gentile, Marie-Claude Geoffroy, Renske Gilissen, Madelyn Gould, Keith Hawton, Franziska Holz, Hye-In Hong, Nurashikin Ibrahim, Madeleine Jaeger, Ann John, Nancy Jong, Navneet Kapur, Alexandr Kasal, Murad Khan, Olivia J. Kirtley, Duleeka Knipe, Kairi Kõlves, Sarah C. Kölzer, Stuart Leske, Fabio Madeddu, David Mais, Anjum Memon, Ellenor Mittendorfer-Rutz, Lauren Moran, Paul Nestadt, Thomas Niederkrotenthaler, Emma Nielsen, Raihan Khamal Noor, Merete Nordentoft, Herwig Oberlerchner, Rory C. O'Connor, Rainer Papsdorf, Timo Partonen, Michael R. Phillips, Gwendolyn Portzky, Ping Qin, Daniel Radeloff, Shane Randell, Andreas Reif, Christine Reif-Leonhard, Mohsen Rezaeian, Pablo Richly, Nayda Román-Vázquez, Saska Roskar, Grant Sara, Karen Scavacini, Barbara Schneider, Ivalu Katajavaara Seidler, Mark Sinyor, Stefano Tambuzzi, Lay San Too, Ellen Townsend, Sarantis Tsiaplias, Michiko Ueda, Daniel Vasquez, Danuta Wasserman, Roger T. Webb, Petr Winkler, Paul S. F. Yip, Gil Zalsman, Riccardo Zoja, Matthew J. SpittalAbstract: Background: The cost-of-living crisis may be contributing to suicide rates, but this has not been adequately tested. Aims: We aimed to determine whether the cost-of-living crisis is associated with suicide rates in multiple countries and areas-within-countries. Method: We sourced country- and area-within-country-level monthly suicide data at a minimum from January 1, 2019, to December 31, 2022 (and at a maximum from January 1, 2016, to June 30, 2023), and population denominator and monthly headline consumer price index (CPI) data. We calculated the yearly change in inflation as the percentage change in CPI for one month versus the equivalent month in the previous year. We estimated associations between yearly change in inflation (lagged by one month) and suicide rates for each country and area-within-country, using autoregressive negative binomial regression. We summarized results using weighted means. Results: We obtained data on 1,372,994 suicides from 54 countries. At the country-level, for every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there was an average 0.2% increase in suicide rates. The association was strongest in those aged 30–49 and 50–69; for every 1.0% increase in yearly inflation in the previous month, there were 0.3% and 0.6% increases in suicide rates for these age-groups, respectively. This pattern held for males in these age-groups, with increases of the same magnitude, and for females aged 50–69, with a 0.8% increase. At the area-within-country-level, the picture was even starker. Limitations: Study limitations include: the ecological design; the single measure of inflation; potential variations in suicide data quality; lack of representation by low-and-middle-income countries (LMICS); lack of availability of sex, age and sex/age breakdowns for some countries and areas-within-countries; and potential issues with multiple testing. Conclusions: There is an association between the cost-of-living crisis and suicide rates internationally. Public and social policies that improve people’s circumstances are critical.