The Correlations of Blight, Crime, and Litter: A Path Analysis with Urban Morphology

Urban blight, crime, and litter are subjects of the vast urban studies literature, albeit treated separately when linked to the physical features of built and natural environments. Thus, the discussions of blight, crime, and litter in the literature mask the significance of their relationship vis-a-vis the spatial form of cities. We address this gap in the urban studies literature with a path analytic approach informed by urban morphology, from the Chicago School to New Urbanism, which sheds light on the spatial form of cities as a structural determinant of the interrelated blight, crime, and litter. In a path analysis, we specify the structure and determine the degree and significance of the direct and indirect relationships among blight, crime, and litter endogenously, with the socio-economic–spatial indicators at the block group level exogenously, including land use (mix), density, walkability, income, race, and neighborhood concentrated disadvantage. We augment the block group-level census economic and demographic data with local government land use and institutional documentation of neighborhood conditions, public safety, and 311 calls—incidents of blight, crime, and litter, respectively—for a case study of Memphis, Tennessee. A geographic information system (GIS) aids in the geocoding and aggregation of data at the census block group level approximating neighborhoods. The findings, with standardized weights signifying the relative dominance of blight, crime, and litter, inform and fine-tune planning and public policy targeted to neighborhoods. This study concludes with a discussion of urban revitalization implications.