The Brand‐New Overestimation Effect: Materialism and Identity Misforecasting As Cognitive Barriers to Second‐Hand Consumption

ABSTRACT

Despite the rise of circular fashion, buying brand‐new garments remains the societal norm. This research identifies a cognitive bias hindering sustainable consumption: identity misforecasting , by which consumers mispredict how much a brand‐new purchase will enhance their identity. Across four studies ( N  = 1,993) and an internal meta‐analysis, we compared the identity‐related and emotional benefits consumers expect from new versus second‐hand clothing with the benefits they report after actual purchases. Drawing on affective forecasting and consumer psychology, we find that materialism is associated with stronger expectations of self‐esteem gains and positive emotions from clothing purchases. Materialistic consumers also systematically overestimate the identity‐boosting benefits of future brand‐new purchases relative to second‐hand ones, a bias we call ‘ the brand‐new overestimation effect ’. However, this bias disappears when consumers evaluate their past purchases. Furthermore, anticipated positive emotions predict intentions to buy second‐hand clothing, but are less important for intentions to buy brand‐new clothing, suggesting that choosing second‐hand requires a stronger affective pull to overcome the preference for buying new. These findings show that biased expectations about self‐relevant benefits favour brand‐new over second‐hand purchases. These findings suggest that marketing communications for second‐hand fashion should move beyond functional appeals or economic savings by clearly highlighting the emotional and identity‐related benefits of circular consumption.