The belt and road initiative and environmental sustainability: role of ICT development and renewable energy consumption

Abstract

As sustainability challenges intensify globally, evaluating the environmental impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become increasingly important. Using panel data from 176 countries spanning 2003–2022, this study examines the influence of BRI on environmental sustainability using ecological footprint per capita (lnEF) as a comprehensive indicator and difference-in-differences (DiD) methodology. BRI participation leads to a 5 per cent increase in the lnEF among partner countries. Dual-channel analysis shows that renewable energy consumption mitigates ecological pressure, whereas information and communication technology development partially mediates the effects of BRI participation and environmental outcomes. Pronounced heterogeneity effects were observed for (i) countries joining between 2016 and 2019 (in Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa), and (ii) countries in upper-middle- and high-income groups. Propensity score matching–DiD and robustness checks showed consistent findings. This study offers policy recommendations that emphasize environmental assessments, green technology support and international cooperation on sustainability.