The Aftermath of Almost: Communicating Risk Amid Community Narratives of Near Misses

ABSTRACT

Unpredictable weather means that serious threats do not always unfold as forecast. Hurricane near misses create an especially challenging communication context: The absence of harm may invite community explanations that make the event feel less threatening, even as future risk persists. This study examines how community narratives and post‐event risk messages shape risk perception, collective efficacy, preparedness intentions, message sharing, and credibility after hurricane near misses. In an online experiment, Florida residents ( N  = 405) viewed social media posts about a hurricane that shifted away from a coastal community. The posts varied by explanation type, comparing a symbolic community narrative with a factual account, and by response source, comparing emergency management, peer, and control messages. Results show limits and leverage points for post‐event risk communication: In the primary analysis, neither community narratives nor risk messages significantly shifted perceived risk; however, supplementary analyses accounting for regional residence revealed a small reduction in perceived risk following narrative exposure. Risk messages increased sharing and collective efficacy, and organizational sources were more credible than peer sources. These findings suggest that post‐event risk communication after near misses may not readily recalibrate individual risk perceptions but can shape how risk information circulates and how communities perceive their capacity to respond. The study advances understanding of near misses as ambiguous risk events in which communication matters even when harm does not occur.