The Absorptive Capacity of Rural Public Expenditure and Its Poverty Reduction Effect: A Measurement and Explanation from a Cultural-Geographical Perspective

The extent to which rural public expenditure can be effectively absorbed is central to understanding how public spending translates into poverty reduction and improved regional governance. Using Global Principal Component Analysis (GPCA), this study constructs an Absorptive Capacity Index (ACI) based on three dimensions: geographical location, natural environment, and cultural-institutional conditions. A spatial Markov chain is then employed to examine the spatial transition dynamics of absorptive capacity. Using provincial panel data from 2008 to 2023, we further apply a matching-effect model, a threshold model, and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) to investigate how absorptive capacity shapes the poverty-reduction effects of different categories of rural public expenditure and how these effects vary across space and time. The results show that, first, rural public expenditure absorptive capacity exhibits a clear east–west gradient, with higher levels in eastern China and lower levels in western China. It also displays significant spatial dependence and path dependence, while transition patterns vary across expenditure categories and neighborhood conditions. Second, the baseline regressions show that total rural public expenditure per capita and expenditures on infrastructure, science and technology, healthcare, social security, and education are all positively and significantly associated with rural per capita disposable income, suggesting that public expenditure contributes to poverty reduction through higher rural incomes. Third, the matching effects differ substantially across expenditure categories. Higher absorptive capacity strengthens the positive effect of infrastructure expenditure on rural income but weakens the marginal effects of science and technology and social security expenditure. Its moderating effects on total public expenditure, healthcare expenditure, and education expenditure are not statistically significant. Fourth, the threshold regressions reveal significant nonlinearities in the effects of total public expenditure and expenditures on infrastructure, science and technology, social security, and education. The estimated threshold values and post-threshold changes differ markedly across expenditure categories. Once absorptive capacity exceeds the relevant threshold, the positive income effects of total expenditure, infrastructure expenditure, and education expenditure become stronger, whereas the marginal effects of science and technology and social security expenditure weaken. Fifth, the GTWR results reveal substantial spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the relationship between absorptive capacity and rural income, with distinct patterns of spatial reconfiguration and temporal change across expenditure categories. These findings suggest that rural poverty-reduction policies should focus not only on the scale of fiscal expenditure but also on aligning resource allocation and complementary conditions with regional absorptive capacity and expenditure composition. Such an approach can improve the efficiency with which public funds are translated into higher rural incomes and development opportunities. By introducing a cultural-geographical perspective, this study highlights the role of regional absorptive capacity in converting public expenditure into income gains and poverty reduction. It provides new empirical evidence on the spatial heterogeneity of public expenditure effects and offers a basis for more place-sensitive rural poverty-reduction policies.