Testing a Multi-Source Diagnostic Framework for Tourism Potential–Performance Mismatch: Evidence from a Transitional Region in China

Tourism development potential and observed development performance do not necessarily evolve synchronously, particularly in old industrial and restructuring regions where attraction supply, market linkage, and visitor experience may be spatially uneven. This study develops a multi-source diagnostic framework for identifying tourism potential–performance mismatch across the 14 prefecture-level cities of Liaoning Province, China. Drawing on Ctrip review texts, rating scores, timestamps, platform-displayed reviewer-origin labels, A-level scenic-spot point data, and annual official city-level tourism statistics, the study constructs three dimension-specific sub-indices—the Scenic Experience Index (ESI), the Market Linkage Index (MLI), and the Attraction Foundation Index (AFI)—and synthesizes them into a Comprehensive Potential Index (CPI). The CPI is then compared with an Observed Performance Index (OPI) constructed from domestic tourist arrivals and domestic tourism revenue for 2016–2022. The results show that attraction foundation contributes most strongly to composite tourism potential, while market linkage and scenic experience condition how this structural basis is associated with observed outcomes. The CPI–OPI comparison identifies three relationship types: matched, potential-leading, and performance-leading cities. Dalian and Shenyang are high-level matched cities, Benxi and Jinzhou are high-potential but under-converted cities, and Anshan and Dandong are performance-leading cities. These findings demonstrate that favorable structural tourism conditions are not automatically transformed into realized market performance. The study contributes a multidimensional, gap-analysis-based diagnostic architecture that can support tourism-related spatial planning and territorial governance in transitional regions.