Tertiary lymphoid structure transcriptomic signatures show limited and cohort-dependent value for predicting axillary nodal involvement in oestrogen receptor-positive luminal breast cancer

Tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS) are associated with prognosis in solid tumours. Their value for predicting axillary nodal involvement in oestrogen receptor-positive luminal breast cancer remains uncertain. Three published TLS signatures were scored by single-sample gene set enrichment analysis in oestrogen receptor-positive luminal tumours. The Cancer Genome Atlas Breast Invasive Carcinoma cohort (TCGA-BRCA) included 632 cases, of which 379 met strict consensus. METABRIC included 1086 cases, of which 663 met strict consensus. Logistic models adjusted for age and pathological tumour stage. Strict consensus, majority vote, and continuous scores were compared. Performance assessment included bootstrapped changes in area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, Brier scores, calibration, and decision-curve analysis. Survival was evaluated in METABRIC and explored in TCGA-BRCA. Strict-consensus TLS status was not associated with nodal positivity in TCGA-BRCA (adjusted odds ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62–1.45, P = 0.822). METABRIC was similar (odds ratio: 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.55–1.06, P = 0.105). Full-cohort METABRIC analyses detected small majority-vote and continuous-score associations, absent in TCGA-BRCA. Across specifications, bootstrapped changes in area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve ranged from 0.0002 to 0.0089, with minimal Brier-score improvement and no stable decision-curve benefit. In METABRIC, the univariable overall survival association attenuated after age adjustment (hazard ratio: 1.33–1.10). TCGA-BRCA survival analyses were nonsignificant. TLS transcriptomic signals showed small, cohort-dependent associations with nodal status but no reproducible or clinically meaningful incremental predictive value. These data do not support replacing sentinel lymph node biopsy with a TLS signature in oestrogen receptor-positive luminal breast cancer.