Temporal Projections of Land-Use Patterns and Ecosystem Services Valuations for Mine Closure Alternatives: A Case Study

Scientific studies of mine closure and ecosystem management have become very important since the rate of coal mine closures in China has increased rapidly over the last decade. This study first analyzed spatiotemporal changes in land use and ecosystem services value (ESV) during the period 2000–2020 around the Kailuan Mining Area in Tangshan City. The area has a history of over 100 years of continuous mining activities in the region. The analyses used the PLUS model, multi-scenario simulation, and ESV equivalent factor method and multi-source data on land use, mining activities, socioeconomic factors, and climatic conditions. The study then projected land-use changes and spatiotemporal ESV characteristics for the year 2030 for two alternatives: (1) the Current Development Scenario (CDS), representing the current pace of development without mine closure; and (2) the Ecological Restoration Scenario (ERS), representing mine closure and ecological restoration. Key results include: (1) during 2000–2020, cultivated land and construction land were the primary land uses, with the overall trends showing decrease in cultivated, forest, pasture, and unused lands, varying water use areas, and continuously increasing construction land; (2) the revised ESV results show that total ESV declined from 31.27 million USD in 2000 to 25.30 million USD in 2020, a net decrease of 6.19 million USD, mainly because of cropland loss and degradation of forest and grassland; and (3) for 2030, the CDS projected a continued decline in total ESV to 24.30 million USD, whereas the ERS increased total ESV to 26.50 million USD, which is 2.19 million USD higher than the CDS and 1.20 million USD higher than the 2020 baseline. Compared with the CDS, the ERS increased cropland by 13.20 km2 and reduced construction land by 10.06 km2, indicating that reclaiming subsided water bodies and idle construction land into cropland and restored ecological land can enhance ecosystem services while mitigating subsidence-related risks. The framework can support data-driven post-mining land-use planning and ecological management in resource-based regions.