Technology (Non)Emergence: How System Interdependencies Among Activities by Heterogeneous Actors Shaped Alternative Solar Technology Trajectories

We examine industry and technology (non)emergence by integrating actor-centric and systems perspective literature streams. We use historical methods to analyze rich data tracking investments by actors spanning private, public, and academic sectors in the solar photovoltaics context. The industry took several decades after commercialization to emerge; moreover, silicon and thin film technologies experienced divergent fates despite firm takeoff. By uncovering critical interdependencies across activities by different actors, we show that, whereas attention by all actors to developing various elements of technological systems is necessary for emergence, it may not be sufficient. The industry emerged after activities by technology producers, industry associations, and government agencies ensured stable institutional support that stimulated latent demand (by utilities and end consumers) and created reinforcing loops among activities by technology producers and research institutes for solar technologies to become a viable alternative to fossil fuels. Moreover, silicon experienced additional reinforcing loops in demand-side and supply-side ecosystems, wherein technology producers and equipment manufacturers leveraged adjacent mature supply chains to meet demand-side scale and reliability requirements in fast growing markets. In contrast, thin film experienced balancing loops wherein nascent firm-specific supply side alliances could not address these demand side needs. These findings showcase how dominant designs may emerge even when there is no ex ante competitive dynamics among technology producers: Although silicon may have benefited from first mover advantage at the technology level, our study highlights that ecosystem first mover advantages of silicon relative to thin film were particularly salient in their divergent fates.

Supplemental Material: The online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2022.17185 .