Tax evasion as a predicate offense of money laundering: Economic substance versus legal form

The article examines whether savings resulting from tax evasion can be treated as proceeds derived from a criminal act for money laundering purposes. Applying prospect theory and the Kaplow model, the research analyzes the economic equivalence of unpaid tax and unlawful income. Empirical data include 78 final court judgments (2020-2024) of higher courts in Serbia and macroeconomic estimates of the shadow economy (21-32% of GDP). The findings confirm that tax savings are economically equivalent to unlawful income, but they become "proceeds" only when accompanied by subsequent acts of concealment (conversion, transfer, investment). Otherwise, unpaid tax remains a property benefit. Fixed and marginal costs of evasion explain why only 7.7% of cases involve money laundering. Strengthening institutional cooperation is more effective than merely increasing penalties. The paper offers quantitative thresholds for policy intervention.