Tariff Pass‐Through and Domestic Consumer Goods Prices: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation of China's Anti‐Dumping Measure on Australian Barley

ABSTRACT

This article investigates how anti‐dumping duties affect domestic consumer goods prices in China through price pass‐through. Using monthly Chinese customs trade data and domestic agricultural prices from 2010 to 2020, and exploiting the 2020 anti‐dumping duty on Australian barley through first‐differenced regressions and a difference‐in‐differences design, we find incomplete pass‐through: 40% of the duty is borne by Chinese importers, with the import‐price pass‐through effect estimated at 0.42. Tracking the duty along the industrial chain, we further document that the duty raises domestic barley prices and generates positive spillovers to substitute feed grains, including corn, sorghum, and soybeans, which in turn elevates downstream consumer‐goods prices in the short run. Heterogeneity analyses show that processing‐trade imports and low‐income households are more exposed to the resulting price pressure.